The Trump and Biden Economies by the Numbers

Lately, commentators in the media have made all kinds of arguments about the economy, often comparing and contrasting the Trump and Biden economies. These arguments are often dishonest and intentionally omissive and often come with considerable spin, some of which is quite creative. The following is an analysis based on facts, data, and statistics that sets the record straight on many important aspects of the economy.

Inflation!

One of the most important aspects of any economy is the stability of prices, which is affected by inflation. Excessive inflation can harm or even totally destroy a nation by ultimately destroying its currency. The following table shows key inflation numbers during each term of each U.S. president going back to December 1969.

President	Term	CPI Index	As of	Total CPI Inflation	Over [?] Months	Avg. CPI Annualized	Time Period Analyzed
Biden	1st	310.33	Feb 2024	19.14%	38	5.69%	Dec 2020 to Feb 2024
Trump	1st	260.47	Dec 2020	7.89%	48	1.92%	Dec 2016 to Dec 2020
Obama	2nd	241.43	Dec 2016	5.15%	48	1.26%	Dec 2012 to Dec 2016
Obama	1st	229.60	Dec 2012	9.21%	48	2.23%	Dec 2008 to Dec 2012
Bush 43	2nd	210.23	Dec 2008	10.47%	48	2.52%	Dec 2004 to Dec 2008
Bush 43	1st	190.30	Dec 2004	9.37%	48	2.26%	Dec 2000 to Dec 2004
Clinton	2nd	174.00	Dec 2000	9.71%	48	2.34%	Dec 1996 to Dec 2000
Clinton	1st	158.60	Dec 1996	11.77%	48	2.82%	Dec 1992 to Dec 1996
Bush 41	1st	141.90	Dec 1992	17.76%	48	4.17%	Dec 1988 to Dec 1992
Reagan	2nd	120.50	Dec 1988	14.43%	48	3.43%	Dec 1984 to Dec 1988
Reagan	1st	105.30	Dec 1984	22.02%	48	5.10%	Dec 1980 to Dec 1984
Carter	1st	86.30	Dec 1980	48.28%	48	10.35%	Dec 1976 to Dec 1980
Ford	1st	58.20	Dec 1976	17.81%	29	7.02%	Jul 1974 to Dec 1976
Nixon	2nd	49.40	Jul 1974	16.24%	19	9.97%	Dec 1972 to Jul 1974
Nixon	1st	42.50	Dec 1972	12.73%	36	4.08%	Dec 1969 to Dec 1972
		37.70	Dec 1969

Additional table notes:

• CPI inflation percentages were calculated using “CPI Index” values.
• “Avg. CPI Annualized” was calculated using “Total CPI Inflation” and number of months.
• “Avg. CPI Annualized” is an average for a running 12-month period (year-over-year) and is a geometric average, not an arithmetic average.

The “Avg. CPI Annualized” column is the best dataset in the table above for directly comparing inflation under different presidential administrations. This data clearly shows that the average year-over-year (YoY) inflation under the Biden administration is nearly three times that of the Trump administration and is also the highest average YoY inflation since the Carter administration. It is important to note that the Federal Reserve’s “dual mandate” to control employment and inflation was assigned by the Federal Reserve Reform Act of 1977. Numerous factors contributed to financial turbulence for many years leading up to that year, which caused very high inflation, and it took many years afterward to get inflation down near the Fed’s intended 2% target. Inflation has been kept well under control for several decades, but the Biden administration has sent inflation soaring even with the Fed working to maintain its 2% target.

The table below shows CPI YoY inflation further broken down by month since the beginning of 2017. The table shows numbers in excess of 8% for seven months in 2022 with the number exceeding 9% for one of those months.

Monthly CPI Inflation
YEAR	JAN	FEB	MAR	APR	MAY	JUN	JUL	AUG	SEP	OCT	NOV	DEC
2024	3.09%	3.15%
2023	6.41%	6.04%	4.98%	4.93%	4.05%	2.97%	3.18%	3.67%	3.70%	3.24%	3.14%	3.35%
2022	7.48%	7.87%	8.54%	8.26%	8.58%	9.06%	8.52%	8.26%	8.20%	7.75%	7.11%	6.45%
2021	1.40%	1.68%	2.62%	4.16%	4.99%	5.39%	5.37%	5.25%	5.39%	6.22%	6.81%	7.04%
2020	2.49%	2.33%	1.54%	0.33%	0.12%	0.65%	0.99%	1.31%	1.37%	1.18%	1.17%	1.36%
2019	1.55%	1.52%	1.86%	2.00%	1.79%	1.65%	1.81%	1.75%	1.71%	1.76%	2.05%	2.29%
2018	2.07%	2.21%	2.36%	2.46%	2.80%	2.87%	2.95%	2.70%	2.28%	2.52%	2.18%	1.91%
2017	2.50%	2.74%	2.38%	2.20%	1.87%	1.63%	1.73%	1.94%	2.23%	2.04%	2.20%	2.11%

The Biden administration brags about inflation coming back down in recent months, but it’s still considerably higher than before Biden took office. Also, the fact that inflation is still positive, meaning that it’s not deflation, means that prices are not coming down but are still rising, albeit at a somewhat slower rate. This means that the American people are not experiencing relief from the recent surge in actual prices of their everyday needs.

There are two factors that are highly likely to have caused the huge spike in inflation under the Biden administration: massive government spending and Biden’s attack on the oil industry. Excessive government spending is often mentioned in the media, but the attack on the oil industry may very well have had a sharper and more immediate effect on inflation. Rising oil and gas prices quickly affect all industries as they increase the cost of so many activities from shipping inventory to simple travel expenses for service providers. Businesses across all industries must then raise prices of their products and services to cover the increased costs, resulting in inflation across the board.

The oil-and-gas factor driving inflation.

In the event that it’s unclear to some people that the Biden administration has attacked the oil industry, below are some Biden executive orders that serve as examples of actions the administration has taken that have caused such harm. For the first two, I’ve listed numerous Trump executive orders, many of which had strengthened the economy, that were revoked by those two Biden executive orders:

• Biden EO 13990 Protecting Public Health and the Environment and Restoring Science to Tackle the Climate Crisis
  • Revoked Trump EO 13766 Expediting Environmental Reviews and Approvals for High Priority Infrastructure Projects
  • Revoked Trump EO 13778 Restoring the Rule of Law, Federalism, and Economic Growth by Reviewing the “Waters of the United States” Rule
  • Revoked Trump EO 13783 Promoting Energy Independence and Economic Growth
  • Revoked Trump EO 13792 Review of Designations Under the Antiquities Act
  • Revoked Trump EO 13795 Implementing an America-First Offshore Energy Strategy
  • Revoked Trump EO 13807 Establishing Discipline and Accountability in the Environmental Review and Permitting Process for Infrastructure Projects
  • Revoked Trump EO 13868 Promoting Energy Infrastructure and Economic Growth
  • Revoked Trump EO 13927 Accelerating the Nation’s Economic Recovery From the COVID–19 Emergency by Expediting Infrastructure Investments and Other Activities
• Biden EO 13992 Revocation of Certain Executive Orders Concerning Federal Regulation
  • Revoked Trump EO 13771 Reducing Regulation and Controlling Regulatory Costs
  • Revoked Trump EO 13777 Enforcing the Regulatory Reform Agenda
  • Revoked Trump EO 13875 Evaluating and Improving the Utility of Federal Advisory Committees
  • Revoked Trump EO 13891 Promoting the Rule of Law Through Improved Agency Guidance Documents
  • Revoked Trump EO 13892 Promoting the Rule of Law Through Transparency and Fairness in Civil Administrative Enforcement and Adjudication
  • Revoked Trump EO 13893 Increasing Government Accountability for Administrative Actions by Reinvigorating Administrative PAYGO
• Biden EO 14008 Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad
• Biden EO 14027 Establishment of the Climate Change Support Office
• Biden EO 14030 Climate-Related Financial Risk
• Biden EO 14037 Strengthening American Leadership in Clean Cars and Trucks
• Biden EO 14057 Catalyzing Clean Energy Industries and Jobs Through Federal Sustainability
• Biden EO 14082 Implementation of the Energy and Infrastructure Provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022
• Biden EO 14096 Revitalizing Our Nation’s Commitment to Environmental Justice for All

Any official acts that utilize the terms “climate crisis,” “climate justice,” or “environmental justice” are not only likely to be harmful to the country’s oil industry, but also represent totally silly partisan pandering that solves no real problem. Data and evidence show that there has always been climate “change” throughout the earth’s entire 4.5-billion-year history and that we are nowhere near a climate crisis right now. But that’s a topic for a later post. More information on all of the above executive orders, including full descriptions of what each one does, can be found at the following link: https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders.

The Biden administration’s actions, policies, and general attitude toward the energy industry have driven up oil and gas prices. The following table shows the national average gas price by month going back as far as January 2017.

U.S. National Average Gasoline Price
Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
2017	2.458	2.416	2.437	2.528	2.503	2.46	2.414	2.494	2.761	2.621	2.678	2.594
2018	2.671	2.705	2.709	2.873	2.987	2.97	2.928	2.914	2.915	2.943	2.736	2.457
2019	2.338	2.393	2.594	2.881	2.946	2.804	2.823	2.707	2.681	2.724	2.693	2.645
2020	2.636	2.533	2.329	1.938	1.961	2.17	2.272	2.272	2.274	2.248	2.20	2.284
2021	2.42	2.587	2.898	2.948	3.076	3.157	3.231	3.255	3.272	3.384	3.491	3.406
2022	3.413	3.611	4.322	4.213	4.545	5.032	4.668	4.087	3.817	3.935	3.799	3.324
2023	3.445	3.501	3.535	3.711	3.666	3.684	3.712	3.954	3.958	3.742	3.443	3.257
2024	3.197	3.328

The table shows how quickly gas prices began rising soon after Joe Biden assumed the presidency. The average exceeded $3/gallon by May 2021, exceeded $4/gallon for six months in 2022, and almost reached $4/gallon again in 2023. For comparison, the average never reached $3/gallon during the Trump administration and was often much lower during that time. Again, the spiking oil and gas prices quickly permeated the rest of the economy and caused very high overall inflation.

The Biden administration has blamed Russian President Vladimir Putin for the increase in oil and gas prices and has sometimes used the term “Putin’s price hikes,” as if to suggest that Putin somehow administers U.S. economic policy. But Biden’s reckless policy and executive actions and the significant rise in oil and gas prices all started fairly early in 2021, long before Russia invaded Ukraine. The following is a series of events in chronological order that demonstrate a more accurate picture:

1. January 2021: The Biden administration began taking executive actions that undermined the oil industry.
2. May 2021: U.S. national average gasoline price exceeded $3/gallon because of Biden’s actions and policy.
3. May 2021 – February 2022: U.S. national average gasoline price continued rising, empowering Russia to wage war on Ukraine.
4. August 2021: U.S. withdraws from Afghanistan in disastrous manner, emboldening Putin to invade Ukraine.
5. February 2022: Russia invades Ukraine as Putin is economically empowered by higher oil and gas prices and emboldened by Biden’s extreme weakness and incompetence as displayed in Afghanistan.
6. March 2022: Oil and gas prices begin spiking much higher.

Therefore, the Biden administration’s anti-oil policies and actions and the administration’s display of extreme weakness and incompetence are the root causes of the huge increase in oil and gas prices.

The government-spending factor driving inflation.

The other major factor driving inflation is excessive government spending. In particular, deficit spending can generally drive up inflation by causing the government to have to borrow money, thus increasing the national debt. To borrow money, the government issues bills, notes, and bonds into circulation, and that issuance puts upward pressure on interest rates. To control interest rates, the Federal Reserve then purchases some of the government debt with newly created money. This new money is issued into circulation causing inflation of the money supply and eventually inflation of prices across the board.

The following table shows the national debt balance at the end of each fiscal year for the years 2014-2023, and the increase in national debt during each of those fiscal years.

Record Date	Fiscal Year	National Debt	Increase
9/30/2023	2023	33,167,334,044,723	2,238,422,431,416
9/30/2022	2022	30,928,911,613,307	2,499,993,043,258
9/30/2021	2021	28,428,918,570,049	1,483,527,375,434
9/30/2020	2020	26,945,391,194,615	4,225,989,441,181
9/30/2019	2019	22,719,401,753,434	1,203,343,570,254
9/30/2018	2018	21,516,058,183,180	1,271,158,167,126
9/30/2017	2017	20,244,900,016,054	671,455,302,117
9/30/2016	2016	19,573,444,713,937	1,422,827,047,453
9/30/2015	2015	18,150,617,666,484	326,546,285,750
9/30/2014	2014	17,824,071,380,734

Obviously, the COVID year 2020 is an outlier because everyone panicked and the government spent an enormous amount of money. President Biden and his administration officials brag about greatly reducing the deficit, but that’s only by comparing 2020 and 2021. More importantly, the national debt increased more in 2021 than in any prior year other than 2020. Then the magnitude of the increases in national debt exploded in 2022 and 2023 with no COVID or other perceived emergency, just routine government spending. This level of government spending in 2022 and 2023 is a key factor in the massive inflation during the Biden administration.

What about the stock market?

Joe Biden has shown a tendency to brag about the stock market rising lately and the supposedly positive effects on people’s 401(k) accounts. But a careful analysis of stock market movement in recent years doesn’t look good for the Biden administration, especially when the effects of inflation are considered. The following table documents S&P 500 gains and losses during recent presidential administrations.

Date of Record	President	S&P 500	Gain/Loss	Adjusted G/L	Annualized G/L
12/31/2023	Biden	4,769.83	26.99%	7.83%	2.54%
12/31/2020	Trump	3,756.07	67.77%	55.51%	11.67%
12/31/2016	Obama	2,238.83	56.98%	49.29%	10.54%
12/31/2012	Obama	1,426.19	57.90%	44.57%	9.65%
12/31/2008	Bush 43	903.25	-25.47%	-32.54%	-9.37%
12/31/2004	Bush 43	1,211.92	-8.21%	-16.07%	-4.29%
12/31/2000	Clinton	1,320.28	78.24%	62.46%	12.90%
12/31/1996	Clinton	740.74	70.01%	52.11%	11.05%
12/31/1992	Bush 41	435.71

Additional table notes:

• The “Gain/Loss” column represents the gain or loss for the presidential term with no adjustments.
• The “Adjusted G/L” column is the gain or loss for that term adjusted for inflation.
• The “Annualized G/L” column is the geometric average gain or loss for a running 12-month period (year-over-year), also adjusted for inflation.

All three of the gain/loss columns in the table above show that the Trump stock market far outperformed the Biden stock market, but the rightmost column “Annualized G/L” provides the most accurate comparison as it is inflation-adjusted and scaled to a per-year basis. That rightmost column shows that the Trump stock market outperformed the Biden stock market through the end of 2023 by a factor of 4.59, considering that 11.67% / 2.54% = 4.59.

Although the stock market has risen substantially in 2023 and so far in 2024, the tremendous drop in the stock market in 2022 must be considered as well and affects the numbers in the table above. This stock market drop throughout 2022 calls for a cause-and-effect analysis as follows. The Biden administration’s inflation, or “Bidenflation” as many people call it, caused the Federal Reserve to decide to raise rates substantially during 2022, and the stock market reacts extremely negatively when the Fed raises rates. Therefore, the Biden administration’s actions and policies ultimately caused the stock market to perform poorly.

There is some truth to the idea that the rise in the stock market in the most recent months is likely at least partly caused by the increasing odds that Donald Trump will be elected president. Stock valuations are all about predicting future company revenues and profits, so any company-specific or macroeconomic news regarding the future outlook is likely to have some effect on stock prices right now.

Honorable mention: employment statistics.

The Biden administration also brags about a low unemployment rate, so let’s first look at a table that analyzes the unemployment rate and the employment-to-population ratio (“E-P ratio”) over a number of years.

Year	Civilian Non-institutional Population (thousands)				Employment-Population Ratio	Unemployment Rate
	Total	Labor Force	Employed	Unemployed
2008	233,788	154,287	145,362	8,924	62.18%	5.78%
2009	235,801	154,142	139,877	14,265	59.32%	9.25%
2010	237,830	153,889	139,064	14,825	58.47%	9.63%
2011	239,618	153,617	139,869	13,747	58.37%	8.95%
2012	243,284	154,975	142,469	12,506	58.56%	8.07%
2013	245,679	155,389	143,929	11,460	58.58%	7.38%
2014	247,947	155,922	146,305	9,617	59.01%	6.17%
2015	250,801	157,130	148,834	8,296	59.34%	5.28%
2016	253,538	159,187	151,436	7,751	59.73%	4.87%
2017	255,079	160,320	153,337	6,982	60.11%	4.36%
2018	257,791	162,075	155,761	6,314	60.42%	3.90%
2019	259,175	163,539	157,538	6,001	60.78%	3.67%
2020	260,329	160,742	147,795	12,947	56.77%	8.05%
2021	261,445	161,204	152,581	8,623	58.36%	5.35%
2022	263,973	164,287	158,291	5,996	59.96%	3.65%
2023	266,942	167,116	161,037	6,080	60.33%	3.64%

The first thing to note about the table is that the recovery from the 2008 Financial Crisis was extremely slow. The unemployment rate didn’t drop to its 2008 level until 2015, but it continued to drop every year afterward through 2019. COVID caused the unemployment rate to spike in 2020 as millions of people fled the workforce, but it has quickly dropped back down since then. One thing to consider is that, unlike the 2008 Financial Crisis, the COVID economic reaction wasn’t caused by systemic flaws in the economy. For this reason, the economic recovery from COVID could happen much faster once people decided there was no longer a reason to be afraid.

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The unemployment rate has continued to drop even below its 2019 level, although the E-P ratio and workforce participation haven’t quite recovered to their 2019 or even 2018 levels. However, as with the government-spending and budget deficit topics, Joe Biden again brags about huge improvements of job and employment statistics based only on using the COVID year 2020 as a starting point, which is extremely dishonest and disingenuous. The American people can’t possibly be dumb enough to fall for that.

In any case, while job and employment statistics can make a nation look good from a macroeconomic standpoint, they can easily fall short of communicating how good or bad the economy is for the average individual. There are many factors, good or bad, that could explain the recent numbers and trends. For instance, the economy may still be benefitting from the Trump tax cuts. Taxes are obviously a cost to companies, so lower taxes enable companies to hire people more readily. In addition, more people have to get more jobs and even multiple jobs to help pay for living expenses under the extreme inflation, and a low unemployment rate doesn’t solve that problem.

Back to inflation.

The fact remains that inflation such as that seen during the Biden administration is highly destructive to the macroeconomic picture and to the well-being of the individual. When inflation runs as high as it has recently, it becomes the most important aspect of the economy to the average American. However, there are other statistics and aspects of the economy that are worth more discussion and may be topics of future blog posts on this site.

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